Welcome to the Polish Presidential Election Forecast. This is currently the most in-depth model we’ve made regarding election simulations (we ran the race 200,000 times), and it’s also the first one with a vote share breakdown for the leading candidate. For those who aren’t aware of Poland’s electoral system, it’s relatively simple. The presidential election takes place in two rounds. In the first round, people vote for any candidate they would like using an FPTP (first past the post) system. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a second runoff round is held between the top two candidates of the first round. The winner of the second round is the winner of the presidential election. On this page, you can view regularly updated vote share projections for both rounds of the election as well as the chances of victory for each candidate.
