Last updated and locked on 5/31/25

Welcome to the Polish Presidential Election Forecast. This is currently the most in-depth model we’ve made regarding election simulations (we ran the race 200,000 times), and it’s also the first one with a vote share breakdown for the leading candidate. For those who aren’t aware of Poland’s electoral system, it’s relatively simple. The presidential election takes place in two rounds. In the first round, people vote for any candidate they would like using an FPTP (first past the post) system. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, a second runoff round is held between the top two candidates of the first round. The winner of the second round is the winner of the presidential election. On this page, you can view regularly updated vote share projections for both rounds of the election as well as the chances of victory for each candidate.

Round One Update: The first round of Poland’s presidential election took place on May 18th, 2025. Exit polling data revealed that The Data Times correctly predicted that Trzaskowski and Nawrocki would both advance to round two, an outcome that was given a 99.4% chance of occurring. While Trzaskowski indeed ended up leading the first round, the margin of victory was somewhat closer than expected. However, it’s worth noting that The Data Times’ projection was slightly more accurate than mainstream polling trackers such as ewybory. The second round of the election will take place on June 1st, with round one exit polling data being a part of the race’s modeling.

Round Two

Round One (Archived Final Projections)

Last updated and locked on 5/16/25