The People’s Party
is currently leading the
2026 Thai General Election

---

Methodology

The TDT Thai Election Forecast was created using a weighted poll average of surveys taken from the Nation Poll, Suan Dusit, NIDA, and the ThaiRathPoll. The results of these surveys were compiled using variables such as recency, sample size, surveying days, etc., and were separated into a national constituency projection and a party-list projection. Both projections included inferences for missing data based on previous election results and party splits.

For the party-list projection, the last remainder method of allocation was used for assigning the 100 seats. The constituency projections were made using the application of a mostly proportional swing from the 2023 Thai election. Furthermore, vote share projections for new parties were created through rough estimates of support formed from preceding parties in previous elections, and some swings were capped to avoid any extreme under/overestimations of party performance on a local level. Additionally, minor parties without polling data had their support assumed via the support of larger parties, and local party strength was taken into consideration for adjustments to some projections.

The model’s calculated Margin of Error is ±2.21% for the nationwide vote share projections, a number formed through a weighted MoE average of polls used, an estimate of poll reliability, the time until the election, and the current volume of undecided voters.

Last updated January 29th