Methodology Chart

Recent Updates:

• 4/18/2025: Sample scores are now based on different equations that more adequately distinguish different sample groups and sizes.
• 4/11/2025: The X variable equation of the Recency Score is now more lenient, with the multiplier being 0.000005 instead of 0.00001. This change accommodates the addition of the Y equation and allows polls to retain a positive Recency value even when they are 7 days old.
• 4/9/2025: The Recency Score is now calculated using a combination of the previous sole metric of the variable (poll recency) and the number of days that the poll was ongoing in the form of it being divided by 10 and added to x (the number of days before the most recent poll).
• 4/5/2025: The date used for the Recency Score is now the final day of the poll rather than the median surveying date in order to increase the stability of the tracker and ensure that more polls are represented in the model at any given time. This change will apply to all models and forecasts going forward unless stated otherwise.
• 4/4/2025: Poll scores are now assigned based on their own weighted average of the Silver Bulletin Pollster Ratings (67% of the rating) and The Data Times Poll Reliability Score (33%), a new metric that assigns a numerical value to a polling firm ranging from -0.5 to +1.5 based on its transparency and publicly available data.