The Data Times

Data
Forecasts

2024 Election Forecasts

Kamala Harris (D) Vs. Donald Trump (R)

The Primary Model**
(D) 319 ✔
(R) 219

CNalysis
(D) 308 ✔
(R) 230

538
(D) 276 ✔
(R) 262

Race To The Whitehouse
(D) 276 ✔
(R) 262

Crystal Ball
(D) 276 ✔
(R) 262

New York Times
(D) 270 ✔
(R) 268

Princeton Election Consortium*
(D) 251
(R) 268
Tossup: 19

Silver Bulletin
(D) 251
(R) 287 ✔

JHK
(D) 251
(R) 287 ✔

RealClearPolling
(D) 251
(R) 287 ✔

Polymarket
(D) 251
(R) 287 ✔

The Virtual Tout**
(D) 251
(R) 287 ✔

* The consensus rating map from 270towin.com was used for states that weren’t rated by Princeton

** The Primary Model and The Virtual Tout do not release specific electoral college forecasts. This map was created based on shifting the actual 2024 results far enough to the left to follow each site’s overall EV prediction.